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Many of us were taught at school that the branch of mathematics
known as probability theory was the science of gamblers. It is a
numerical manner of quantifying the precise probability of an ace
being dealt from a deck of 52 cards, or a seven being rolled from
two dice or a ball stopping on a particular number on a roulette
wheel. When gambling on more complex outcomes like a horse winning a
race etc other, less well defined, variables have to be taken into
account. So here the track record of horse, trainer and jockey, the
going on the day and many other factors have to be considered. These
principles of probability have now pervaded all aspects of life.
Probability theory has gone from the smoke filled rooms of the poker
player to the market place, oil production, manufacturing, shipping
and even the health care industry.
Health care is an interesting case, as it illustrates many of the
issues of probability based risk assessment in a manner that is,
apparently, far removed from politics. The risk of death from heart
disease is understandably a huge issue that dominates the lives of
millions of Americans of a particular age and social status. It is
one of the biggest killers of middle class American males between
the ages of 40 and 60 years. There have been many prognostic and
diagnostic tests developed to aid doctors stratify patients who are
suspected of being at risk of a major coronary event. This
stratification process helps free-up beds, rationalise treatments,
and deliver the most appropriate care for those most at risk. There
are currently web sites that offer do-it-yourself checks of cardiac
risk. The user may type in values for age, gender, cholesterol and
blood pressure and obtain an estimation of 10-year risk of having a
heart attack. The process is not an exact science. However formula
for calculating cardiac risk are the most developed out of all of
the major diseases. Similar approaches are being developed for
prostate cancer, breast cancer and Alzheimer's etc. These models are
more akin to astrology than realistic measures of morbidity and
mortality. The bottom line is that the medical risk assessment is
big business, as the North American male population are prepared to
spend big bucks on knowing their long- and short-term health
predictions. Diagnostic kits and tests to predict are a lucrative
business. These come in the form of home cholesterol and blood
pressure testing kits as well as laboratory and hospital based
methods. The absolute life span of a human being cannot be predicted
using a blood spot test on a strip of plastic. Basically they are
getting ripped off, but this doesn't stop them spending.
It is not just health care that is dominated by the quack
practitioners and predictors. We are living in a time when
probabilities and statistical evaluations seem to almost govern our
lives in every aspect. Investments and markets trends are predicted
based on models of probability. These predictions affect employment,
manufacturing and production, import and export, foreign investment,
loans and credit agreements and almost every element of the modern
day economy. As with health care, there are vast amounts of money to
be made merely by applying mathematical models without substance.
Returning to the issue of how probabilities affect individuals,
there is one particular phenomenon that casts a spell on millions
the world over. In 2001 Americans wagered $57 billion dollars on
lotteries, $18 billion on horses and dogs, $592 billion in casinos,
and $150 billion on other forms gambling. It is difficult to see how
anyone would spend money on a lottery ticket considering how long
the odds are. Massachusetts sells more than $500 worth of lottery
tickets each year for every man, woman, and child. Thousands of
people there are just throwing away money to have a 1-to-135,145,920
chance for the jackpot. Applying the term one in a million chance is
actual talking up the likelihood of winning. These are not
reasonable or rational odds to gamble on. If Western society is
sincere in its adherence to scientific ideas and enlightened
philosophy how does it explain the fact the people en mass throw
away their money chasing a dream, with next to no chance of it being
realised.
Perhaps there is a simple explanation; greed. This emotion can push
rational people to do irrational things, especially when they are
being egged on to do so. Western nations exploit their own poor with
lotteries and the like. It is mostly the poor that throw their money
into the black hole of national lotteries. This exploitation is
explicit in some of the advertising bought by the $400 million spent
annually by states to promote lotteries. For example, in Chicago one
sign read: ''This could be your ticket out.'' Ticket out of what?
Lotteries are not the only example of irrational thought influencing
the masses. The West is proud of the enlightened philosophers, their
renaissance artisans and their rational scientists. All of these
works are worth a hill of beans in light of the irrational culture
of fear that is cultivated among the common people of the West.
Americans are told to be scared of their own shadow, with regards to
those evil terrorists that are about to pounce and destroy all that
they cherish. Engendering fear of the terrorist threat is the
political lifeblood of politicians such as Blair, Bush and
Berlusconi et al. Instilling this concept of fear of Muslims in the
people was helped significantly by the image of approximately 3,000
people dying live on cable news network back in September 2001.
However horrific those scenes were, one would of thought that
''rational'' Americans would have the capacity to put things into
perspective. If they were to apply the techniques of cold calculated
risk assessments, they would see that the actual number of Americans
dieing in a terrorist attack on American soil in the year 2000 were
zero, as was the case for 2002 and 2003. Even in the year 2001 the
probability of dieing in an attack was 1 in 100,000. In that year
there was a greater chance of an American dying from influenza or
pneumonia; 1 in 4,500, or suicide; 1 in 9,200, or homicide; 1 in
14,000. So the average American should be more scared of himself or
his fellow American taking his life rather than some foreign
terrorists.
The other big killer, that seems to be continually over looked when
it comes to international politics, is the old enemy the automobile.
1.2 million people die and over 50 million people are permanently
disabled from traffic crashes worldwide each year. A recent WHO
report (April 04) showed that road crashes were now the
second-biggest cause of death among five to 29-year-olds worldwide.
It further predicted (no doubt using probability theory) that
without immediate action to improve road safety, the number of road
traffic deaths would increase by an estimated 80% in low and
middle-income countries by 2020. So who should the average American
fear most a Muslim with a boarding pass for a domestic flight or his
buddy swigging Bud behind the wheel of a Buick. You do the math!
The western way of life is underpinned by a contradiction,
statistics and risk assessment on the one hand and superstition on
the other. This results in an inability to conceptualise issues. As
a result the American public find it impossible to put their
attitudes and response in proportion to the actuality. This risk Vs
myth contradiction epitomises a system riddled with discordant
attitudes to life and conflicting practices. Which of the two
attitudes the government would like the masses to manifest depends
on which works to their advantage. They have media machinery to
manipulate the minds in order to extract sentiments of panic or
complacency. The people then congratulate themselves by believing
they have diversity of opinion and have true freedom of expression.
In contrast Islam has a coherent and consistent philosophy of life,
and a common source of law to govern our affairs i.e. the Quran and
Sunnah. We do not allow probability theory to affect the laws that
we live our lives by. We do not allow politicians to use
probabilities to mould public opinion. Islam does not require us to
base our actions on fatalistic fantasies nor to become slaves of
risk assessment and predictions. We merely follow the divine law,
Sharia. This law is followed whilst we still acknowledge that Allah
(Subhanahu wa ta'ala) is fully aware of actions and events past
present and future. We place emphasis on what we should do, in legal
terms, rather than philosophising about what may or may not befall
us. Whatever does happen to us happens only with the will of Allah (Subhanahu
wa ta'ala).
One incident during the time of Umar ibn Al-Khattab summarizes the
attitude that we should have beautifully. When Umar was about to
enter a town, he was informed that the town was suffering from a
plague, and he decided not to enter the town. One of his companions
asked Umar: ''Are you running away from the Will of Allah?'' Umar
replied: ''Yes, I am running away from the
Will of Allah and going towards the Will of Allah.'' Umar
understood that the Knowledge of Allah or Allah's Will is beyond our
comprehension; therefore, it is futile to guess or speculate what
Allah Wills. And regardless of which path he chooses, Umar realized
that either choice would be within Allah's Knowledge
Comments
We as Muslims seek medical treatment because its something permitted
and recommended by the Sharii texts .These texts are very much
accessible to us.We do not act on the will and knowledge of Allah
which is inaccessible to us.
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